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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."