Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.