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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another sovereign country and abduct its leader – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He believes that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may live to repent if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.